To: bme52 Group
Sent: Monday, July 16, 2007 9:40 AM
Subject: Re: Alternative to Petroleum Crisis
Hi!
I must say Great comment! Actually, I was expecting similar comment from experts in another forum and my article was just to provoke the thought of the like minded people in that group. But I am surprised that you have also similar thought and interest in this regard. Why can't be after all we are nepalese and will be nepalese no matter what!
Now, coming back to your comment, I fully agree on your international pricing mechanism not going to be affected by electricity consumption in Nepal. Very true, how can one control the international price even from exporting electricity from Nepal where the electricity price is one of the highest in Asia. Well, probably my article is not able to point out clearly that the article is in the present context where people are finding hard to accept the price hike. Government and intellectuals like you, me and others fully understand that the price hike with automatic pricing is the only solution in the long term. But my question is what now? Till when...one more price hike..Nepal bandha starts again. We already faced it...what do you expect from this government in transition...wait till CA... 2/3 months from now. As somebody said, the petroleum issue has been a hot potato now. Who is going to put the bell on cat's neck? Who is going to convince the general public? Till when the public like you and me will face the stringent problem like this. Who is in loss now? I am sure that if this continues for 2/3 months more, it is going to be the catastrophe now. Everything will come to a stand still. I think government is waiting for this to come and make people feel that the last option is price hike. I would say, if this is true and the govt is awaiting then I think it is inviting more anger from the public. It is not able to feel the public's sentiment and this may fire another Janaandolan III with more public with real concern in the street and imagine what would happen! If you would have seen the queque and the frustration of the public while lining up, I would say this is fatal. I used to be one of the victim so far.
Now what then? this is what my article tries to address it. Come up with policy that strongly make public feel that the price hike (or some other indirect taxing policy) you can have a safe landing in the present context...Just not simply a price hike only. People will feel that the higher price is for them not for NOC or whatever. This is the only bold step or I must say an active step rather than passive step (hike in price).
Now I must say, everybody should have felt that the country's dependency upon petroleum products can go to what extent! Can you imagine, transport takes up 100% petroleum products consumption in the country leaving few standbay generators and this is increasing day by day. Other developing countries are now taking a U-turn and trying to address their energy policy with more home grown energy mix. At least they started from some point. But for us, its not fossil fuel but it is hydro power. Make the hydropower in priority projects. Issue electricity bonds....Assure/guarantee the banks so that they give project loans to hydropower. Probably the project loans in USA is simple like our personal loan here. You won't believe we do have provision for project loans but non of the bank want to go for it or they have so stringent rules that it is non other than collatoral loan system. Now what to do in this context. I am not trying to address here subsidy and others, these are there and bring other issues too and I don't think this is that simple again. Because some subsidy has to be there like in kerosene. You cannot totally neglect its use in rural area where 100% lighting is dependent upon kerosene. But we are lacking good policy and at the same time we are lacking monitoring mechanism too. And on top of that, the policy never addresses till when the rural people will have to depend upon kerosene!
Now question arises, why only govt why not us. I am not talking about implementation here. I am just talking about policy and this is where the government can play a large role. There should not be doubt on that. For the cost meeting this, the ways I have suggested could be one part in several other ways.
Now to your question on 8 hrs loadshedding and all. To tell you honestly, I would like to remind about the article about Abdul Kalaam as Poudel has forwarded some days ago. You need to believe on your strength and your capability. Have a long term vision. Rome was not built in one day. Petroleum economy did not come over night. I am not trying to put the things such a way that you can do it over night. Its a long prospect. If you don't act then probably you won't even act in the long term. This is where policy matters. Making an environment fostering enough so that private investors like you and others (of course BME52) can come into play. Policy give them a level playing field. I will give an example of Delhi where Supreme Court has to rule that the city has to be converted to CNG vehicle. Now, I don't believe that there is no intellectuals like you and others who never thought about it in Delhi. But circumstances and on top of that as in the case of Delhi,investors/technocrats/intellectuals do need policy to support their endeavours. And this is 100% true in the case of developing countries like in Nepal and others. If it was in USA then probably government only need to come up with stringent measures like emission standards and fine the public for their emissions or whatever just control it no matter what they do. But can you do the same thing in Nepal? Probably not then what can you expect then? At least some measures in policy that even as you said some investors like Manakamana Cables come infront and take their stake in the development! This is what I am expecting once there is policy. But if you ask the owner of Manakamana Cable then you will understand the story he has to go through. Luckily it is surviving even after going through a number of hurdles. If it was not the case, then probably by the time, we should have seen cable car in Muktinath, Naamche etc. Without government policy, non of the investors would like to even think about it rather seeks personal backing from policy makers and this is profitable for handful of people and it is good neither for public nor for the independent market. So, putting a long term prospect and keeping good track of hydropower development in planning process, it should start from some point at least. Why not metro in outer ring at least! But to tell you honestly, if you come over this 8 hrs load shedding, then you will have surplus amount of hydro energy that you will find hard to even take up in the grid. On top of that NEA will be paying for that spilled energy on the other hand and this is the reason that NEA is putting off some IPPs even though it has to go thru load shedding. It is in loss in this cases.
Best regards,
P.S. some of the personal notes are removed!
Update:
Nepal government has successfully hiked the petroleum products price once but it has faced a severe resistance from the public against its decision for the second price hike. As a result, the government has annulled the second price hike and now the government is seeking experts' advice for smooth supply of petroleum products.
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